Mapping the Future

By Anjali Yedavalli

Perhaps no one knows Illinois’ climate as well as State Climatologist Trent Ford — and not just because it’s his field of study. Ford is intimately familiar with every corner of the state. He grew up in Roanoke, completed his undergraduate degree in geography at Illinois State University, taught at Southern Illinois University, and now works as State Climatologist for the Illinois State Water Survey at the University of Illinois.

As State Climatologist, Ford is responsible for documenting weather patterns and climate data for various stakeholders, including farmers and policymakers. He specializes in hydro-climatology and droughts, and studies their intersection with climate-driven social issues. He believes that community engagement is a cornerstone of climate preparedness and resilience.

Q Magazine’s Anjali Yedavalli sat down with Ford in August 2024 to discuss his efforts to communicate climate concerns with the agricultural community, and track weather patterns to inform policy — and how a combination of systemic and individual action can make a profound impact, not only in Illinois but the nation at large.

 

Could you share what initially sparked your interest in climate science and how that led to you ultimately becoming Illinois State Climatologist?

All three of my degrees are in geography. Climate science, or climatology depending on what you call it, is a broad discipline. Some have more of a physics background or math background. Others go to atmospheric science or meteorology to do more weather work. And then a significant number come from geography as well. That’s where I came from. I’ve always been more interested in spatial patterns, differences both in humans and physical systems, or social and physical systems.

What got me interested in climate was also statistics. I had an interest in numbers — not math, but stats. A lot of climate science or climatology deals with statistics, making sense of patterns and numbers, as opposed to more of the pure math or physics background of something like meteorology. That’s what drove me to climate science.

After I graduated with my Ph.D., I was a professor for four years at Southern Illinois University in Carbondale. I loved it. I was in the geography department there. I taught and did research; it was so much fun. But then this position opened up. Both my wife and I are from central Illinois, so I was moving closer to home, having what I felt was a job where I may be seeing more climate impacts. It’s worked out. Lots of pieces brought me to this path, either coincidences or mentors who pointed me in a direction, and in some cases, happenstance. Since the 1970s, the state of Illinois has only had four State Climatologists, myself included. So that’s not a job that comes up very often. And so it happened to work out with timing. I’m very grateful for that.

 

Could you explain what the Illinois State Water Survey is, how it collects data, and why it is so important?

The State Water Survey has been around for over 125 years now. It was originally started in response to public health. Cholera and other waterborne diseases used to run rampant in Illinois. The State Water Survey was set up in response to ensure the quality of water across Illinois was sufficient, as well as the quantity of water for the population growth that the state was experiencing. That still is largely the mission of the water survey today.

Now — as opposed to being a state agency — we’re part of the University of Illinois under the Prairie Research Institute, along with a few other surveys like the Illinois State Geological Survey and the Illinois State Archeological Survey. What we’re tasked to do is to ensure, at a basic level, the quality and quantity of water across the state of Illinois. As you can imagine, Illinois is a much more complex place than it was 125 years ago.

That means that we are doing everything from collecting data to running field stations and sites of stream sampling, groundwater sampling, atmospheric sampling, flood modeling, and mapping. We’re also doing a lot of technical analysis — like water supply analysis — as well as a lot of applied research which requires sophisticated methods — things like machine learning and AI — to apply our findings to important societal problems across Illinois. There’s a diversity of expertise here, from people who are in hazard mitigation, to urban planning, all the way to atmospheric scientists and climatologists like myself.

 

How is climate data gathered and collected across the state?

As far as the long-term climate data for the state of Illinois, most of that’s actually used for climate assessment, for understanding climate change and its impacts. That’s all collected at the federal level by either National Weather Service (NWS) or Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) stations that are automated at airports like Willard or at what are called Cooperative Observer stations all across the state.

There’s a weather station out back of the water survey, right outside my office door, that has been the station of record for Champaign for over 100 years. It started up at the Morrow Plots on campus back in 1888 and then in the 1980s, moved to the water survey. It’s those stations that have been operating over such a long period of time that are necessary to have the record and understand the changes in our climate on those longer-term century scales.

It’s a lot of data. In climate science, we usually have more data than we can process. A lot of my job is curating those data, processing that information, and interpreting that information to answer questions that people around the state have about weather and climate.

 

What significant trends have you observed in Illinois’ climate over the past few years?

Illinois has gotten warmer and wetter since the Industrial Revolution at the turn of the 20th century. We’ve seen all seasons get warmer, but winter has warmed at a much faster rate than all the other seasons. Our winters have warmed about five times the rate of our summers, as far as average temperature is concerned.

That being said, in the spring and the summer, our warm season, we do see an increase in temperature as well as humidity. Those shifting seasons can cause changes in our overall climate, especially the changes in plant and animal species composition for our ecosystems. A lot of milder winters overall can make more attractive conditions for different types of non-native — or in some cases invasive — species of plants and animals to move in. That can have an impact not only on native ecosystems, but also on agriculture.

On the precipitation side, arguably the largest impact that we’ve seen is heavier rainfall. The state is wetter now than it was 100 years ago. More of that rain is falling because of large rainfall events that occur over a short period of time. That’s changing how the land is responding to that water: where we see runoff, the impacts related to flooding, and where that flooding occurs. That’s really one of the biggest impacts we’ve been noticing.

Overall, when we think about regional issues across the U.S., we have certain regions where it’s a real question if they can sustain the agriculture or urban design paradigm that they’ve been working within for the last 50 years. We don’t necessarily have that in the Midwest, but we definitely have issues that we have to deal with. I think heat and the increased frequency of flooding, especially outside of river systems, are two of the pre-eminent issues that we’ve been dealing with. Based on the projections that the models are putting out, we’re likely to continue to deal with them in the future.

 

What do you believe are the most pressing climate-related challenges Illinois is facing now?

There are a handful of issues that climate change creates. Mostly, though, what climate change does is exacerbate existing societal problems, inequities, and injustices that we just haven’t fixed or have gotten largely ignored. Issues like housing and security, urban sprawl and urban design, and energy efficiency are what climate change is putting at the forefront.

Switching to those low-carbon energy sources and agriculture are the most pressing needs globally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But, along with mitigating climate change, reducing vulnerabilities and adapting are also extremely important.

Where the rubber meets the road is locally. For example, in Illinois, if you were to map just extreme heat vulnerability across any place, you’re going to see large disparities between neighborhoods. There’s a lot of that in Chicago, but we also see it here in Champaign, just across the tracks.

There are big differences in vulnerability to extreme heat. Much of that has to do with income, housing security, and all of these things that are adding up that have existed for a long time and have been perpetuated. Fixing those problems reduces overall vulnerability to the hazards we’re seeing more frequently.

Like I said, you have this global focus of climate change being this huge problem, but a lot of the solutions can actually be local. The fact that we have those big disparities here in Champaign-Urbana between neighborhoods has nothing to do with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) or ExxonMobil. That can be fixed locally, the same way that the state can do a lot to decarbonize its economy.

 

How would you say Illinois measures up to other states in terms of climate policy?

Pretty well. Regionally, I would challenge anyone to argue that we aren’t leading the Midwest in climate policy from both an adaptation standpoint and, I think more importantly for Illinois, a mitigation standpoint. I think we’re leading the region.

The state is prioritizing its adaptation, and, there’s a lot more work to do. There’s a lot of vulnerability out there. A lot of times, the Midwest is seen as this haven for climate change. We try to push back on that narrative because even though, yes, our problems are maybe not at the same scale as other places in the world, we do have our own issues that we need to make sure we shore up. But I think overall, the state has been a leader as far as climate action is concerned.

 

Could you talk about food insecurity and agriculture? Is there any relation there?

Roughly 90% of our land is used for food production or grain production. We are a net importer of food in Illinois, meaning we export less than we are bringing in from other states. A lot of those states, paradoxically, are states that are producing food based on water that is running in short supply — places like Arizona and California. If you think about food as water, in many cases, California is exporting water to Illinois, which doesn’t make a lot of sense. So, this system makes unhealthy calories cheaper. It can make things like fresh produce a lot less available for especially low-income folks and families. That’s a real issue. But it also means that we are, again, not sustainably producing that food.

One of many solutions to climate change — not a silver bullet, but still a solution — is sustainable and local food production. Increasing the resilience of those supply chains for food by reducing the geography over which they have to travel is a huge way that we can ensure food security in Illinois.

 

What lessons can we learn from our climate history in Illinois to better prepare us for future challenges?

Drought is my own personal research interest. Illinois is getting wetter, and we have gone now 12 years without a significant drought. And I would argue we’ve gone several decades without a really serious drought. But if we look back in the history of Illinois, we have really serious droughts. It’s part of our natural climate variability. And despite the wetter trend, we are very likely going to see a very serious drought sometime in the near future. I don’t know when it’ll be, and if somebody tells you when it’ll be, they’re lying because they don’t know either. But I can guarantee there will be one.

We have a lot of water in Illinois, fortunately, but it’s an extremely important resource, never more so than when we’re in a drought situation. That’s one use where we look back on the climate record and say, “Yeah, it’s been great, but we can have these issues.” If we do, we need to make sure that we have the water that we need.

 

Do you have a climate wish list or a desired set of legislation to improve climate outcomes in Illinois or even nationwide?

I’m politically agnostic in this job, so I don’t tee up policies. A lot of times there’ll be discussions about the needs from a climate change standpoint, and then the people who are paid to draft the policies will draft the policies or not. I will say that there are definite shortcomings in many areas usually when I’m talking to state agencies.

One, for example, is farm worker safety, because there’s many different issues that are unique to farm work. One thing that we lack is any coherent policy on or regulation of farm worker safety in Illinois. That’s something that is mirrored in most states in the U.S. right now. When talking with state agencies, I show them the projection of increased extreme heat in Illinois. This is something that’s likely going to continue happening and increase the exposure risk to farm workers. Not having any workplace protection could really increase the risk of bad outcomes.

 

Do you think that climate outcomes can truly improve with individual action, or does it truly require systemic change?

Systemic change is the most efficient and effective way to get there. And I think we could argue that it’s absolutely necessary. But individuals … it’s funny because we designed the system. Individuals have agency to make change to that system through civic engagement. But it can be hard to feel the power of your vote. You protest and you go home and nothing’s changed, and it can be hard to feel that way.

If you’re a land manager or owner, making those conservation efforts to reduce the impacts of climate change, like soil erosion, can slow biodiversity decline. If you’re somebody who wants to make changes to their diet or the way they’re using energy or the way their transportation works, that does make a difference, even if it doesn’t seem like it does. So both are true. We need the system to change, but individuals can make a huge difference, too.

About the Author …

Anjali Yedavalli is a senior studying Integrative Biology and minoring in Public Health and Chemistry. She is a Communications Intern for iSEE and is heavily involved in public health and bioethics research on and off campus. Anjali is also the President of a competitive a cappella group, the Illinois Rip Chords. After graduation, she hopes to attend graduate school for public health and epidemiology.

Q Magazine and iSEE commissioned Yedavalli for this piece.